Saturday, August 18, 2007

Low Tech Hurricane Forecasting: The Hebert "Hurricane Box"

The Hebert Box was "discovered" in the late 1970s by Paul Hebert. This former NWS & NHC forecaster found many major Hurricanes that hit South Florida had to first pass through these boxes. The first box is located east of Puerto Rico and the second box is located over the Cayman Islands. Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention". The 1935 Labor day Hurricane that devastated the Florida Keys developed west of this box and Hurricane Andrew passed NE of this box, so there are exceptions to the rule.
This image shows the two Hebert boxes. If Floridians want an indication of a possible hit they need to keep an eye on any hurricane that passes through these boxes. Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida. If a major Hurricane moves into these boxes South Florida really needs to watch out. These boxes approx 335 miles x 335 miles includes the Virgin Islands but not Puerto Rico. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of 10 storms storms that developed and hit Dade, Broward & Palm Beach Counties.

So what does all this mean when a Hurricane passes or develops in the Hebert Box #1 east of Puerto Rico since 1950?
1)N Carolina has as much of a chance to get hit as Florida.
2)20.58% or most go out to sea without hitting land.
3)Only 8.82% make it into the Gulf of Mexico when they pass through the box as a hurricane.
4)Puerto Rico will get hit 20.58% of the time (the highest outside of n Antilles).

What about Box #2,Hurricanes developing or moving through after Oct 1st since 1950?
Cuba & the Bahamas are at highest risk late in the season.

BOX #1 (since 1950)
1950 Baker--Alabama...1950 Dog--out to sea
1951 Charlie--Yucatan/Mexico
1952 Baker-- out to sea
1953 Carol--Nova Scotia
1954 Alice--Leeward Isl out to sea
1955 Connie--N Carolina...1955 Ione--N Carolina
1956 Betsy--N Antilles, PR,Bahamas
1958 Fifi--out to sea....1958 Ilsa--out to sea
1960 DonnaN Antilles,Bahamas,Fla,east seaboard
1963 Edith--windward isl,PR,Hispaniola
1964 Cleo--N Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Fla
1966 Faith--N Antilles....1966 Inez--N Antilles, Hispaniola, Haiti, Cuba Bahamas, FL, Yucatan, Mex.
1967Beulah--Hispaniola,Yucatan,S Texas
1975 Eloise--Hispaniola,Fla panhandle
1979 David--Antilles,Hispaniola,Haiti,Fla,Ga,Sc
1984 Klaus--out to sea
1985 Gloria--NE U.S
1989 dean--Bermuda,Newfoundland....1989 Hugo--N Antilles,PR,SC
1990 Klaus-- out to sea
1995 Luis--N Antilles,New foundland....1995 Marilyn--N antilles,VI.PR
1996 Bertha--N antilles,VI,PR,N carolina...1996 Fran--N Carolina
1996 Hortense--PR,Nova Scotia
1997 Erika--out to sea
1998 Georges--N antilles,VI,PR,Hispaniola,Haiti,Cuba,Keys,mississi ppi
1999 Jose--N antilles,VI....1999 Lenny--N antilles
2000 Debby--n antilles,VI,Hispaniola
2004 FrancesBahamas,Treasure coast,Fla.

BOX #2 (since 1950)
1951 Item Cayman isl,Cuba
1952 Fox Caymans,Cuba,Bahamas
1961 Hattie Belize
1981 Katrina Cuba,Bahamas
1988 Gilbert Yucatan,mexico
1995 Roxanne Yucatan
1998 Mitch Honduras
2001 Iris Belize
2001 Michelle Cuba,Bahamas
2004 Charley W cuba,Fla
2005 Emily Yucatan,Mexico
2005 Wilma Yucatan,S Fla

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